Gulfstream’s retaliation to the Global 7500, the G700, seems well on track for service entry in 2022 with no less than five aircraft engaged in the flight test program within the past ten months. In Europe, Airbus successfully launched the long awaited ACJ TwoTwenty, opening a new market segment which could well reshuffle the cards in the large-cabin, long-range business jet sector; whilst Dassault Aviation just rolled out its – even longer awaited – new flagship, the Falcon 6X, raising the bar even higher in its category – and a new model is likely to be revealed in 2021. When these new types – and other fairly recent models (G500/600, Global 6500/5500, Praetor 600/500, Citation Longitude, PC24) are all in full production, they should stimulate the market.
Sustainable aviation fuels have also made significant inroads in business aviation over the past year.
“Somewhat ironically, COVID-19 has brought new users to business aviation through the clear demonstration of the sector’s valuable attributes, although this has been essentially for leisure and private travel, as opposed to business purposes for now” comments Sémiramoth.
There is also hope on the horizon, particularly for the large-cabin, long-range business jet sector, with the forthcoming arrival of several vaccines which will enable travel restrictions to be lifted. But the question is: where will the demand for business aviation be when this eventually materializes? Based on history, the answer will depend on the magnitude of the damage throughout the global economy.
An analysis of historical values during and after previous downturns shows, from The Sharpwings’ data, that pre-owned business aircraft values tend not to fully recover – with the noticeable exception of newest generation models especially when introduced at the low point of the downturn. “We see no factor or reason why this would be any different this time” Sémiramoth concludes.
Whilst 2021 will present its own challenges and opportunities, The Sharpwings continues to constantly monitor developments on the business aircraft market and values, through its bespoke approach to market intelligence.